We've been fielding a high volume of calls lately from potential sellers and buyers, wondering how a tumultuous world economy is affecting the business sales arena. so we felt it appropriate to take a few moments to explain to you, our valued clients, exactly how we at Power ABA are experiencing the current economic climate.
People are panicked in many corners - and rightly so - but not here at Power ABA. We have weathered economic upheavals before, and for years have planned for days like these. we have learned to see that uncertain economic times mean increased activity across the broad spectrum of business sales.
Fortunately, Power ABA is prepared for whatever the future brings. We keep our focus and run our business not based on emotion but on sound business principles and our many years in this industry. There's no where else we'd rather be!
If you wish to sell, PowerABA will guide you throgh the process to achieve the best possible retrun on your investment, hard work and dedication.
2008-2009... The Crunch Year
The past four to five years have been good in the small business market. This has been to the excellent economy and easy finance. However, the general outlook for 2008-2009 is full of uncertainty. Several positive aspects still remain but a number of significant negative factors could affect the market
Positive Features...
STARTING IN GOOD SHAPE
The Overall market sector is still in good shape. The small business market started 2008 in a positive position. This means that the market has the capacity to with stand even a significant fall in demand.
BUSINESS HAVE STRONG BALANCE SHEETS
Most small businesses throughout Australia have had really good financial years since the early 2000's So, the owners have strong financial assets behind them, allowing them to easily survive an economic downturn in 2008 if this
THE DROUGHT
If the drought breaks it will have an important impact on the economy, especially the regional town businesses,which have suffered badly in the past few years.
INTEREST RATES
self - explanatory
THE ECONOMY
The Australian economy is still strong. Even if it does slow due to events overseas, it is unlikely that a recession will occur in Australia in 2009.
Negative Influences...
The overall small business market should be able to ride out 08-09 reasonably well at this stage. However, an unusually high number of factors could adversely change the situation.
FINANCE AVAILIBILITY
A major concern is the drying up of finance for purchasers of small businesses. The banks have become more stringent in their criteria for lending to small business owners due to the sub prime crisis in America. Banks still want to lend money but are now closely scrutinising each deal. Deals that would have been financed in early 2008 are now being rejected.
This particularly applies to proving that the business can generate enough profits to repay the loan. This means that vendors will need excellent financial accounts, without them banks are unlikely to lend money and the business may become un saleable.
INFLATION
Australia's inflation rate has remained low over the past few years. However this is starting to become a major potential problem for Australia due to :-
(1) Higher wages are starting to come through the system putting significant pressure on future inflation.
(2) China recently has exported deflation. However, inflation in China is now around 7% (+/-):China may start exporting inflation to the world.
(3) The price of oil remains high. This is starting to flow into higher prices. demand for oil is now outstripping supply.
(4) The Australian dollar has been high for several years , if it falls significantly during 2008 this will increase the price of imports and thus inflation.
TRADE BALANCE
Australia has survived a major trade balance problem for the past 10 years because others outside Australia, have lent money to the banks. If the world stops lending money to Australia major problems will occur.
WORLD ECONOMY
Many commentators expect the USA to go into recession in 2008-2009. Other parts of the world such as Europe & Japan are slowing.
Australia has enough strength to withstand a slowing in the world economy provided it is not too steep. However, Australia will not be able to resist a major slowing down.
Summary...
2008-2009 is going to be a crunch year for the Australian economy and the business market.
However,, at this stage enough positive features exist for the small business market to remain reasonable and balanced, especially in the first financial half.
The second half of the year is impossible to predict. Too many major negative influences could occur which would severely affect the market. These may arise and thus only a slight slowing of the small business market will occur. The dice are rolling..
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@ June' 2008 ...
Prices of small business after being flat during 2007 have fallen over the past six (6) months. Overall demand has weakened during 2008 as a result of the economic uncertainty, interest rates, fuel prices etc. however, "good" businesses are still selling well. Overall, prices have fallen by greater than (>) five percent (5%) - depending upon the business type.
So, the market for businesses has softened over the last three months. The early months of 2008 were starting t ease and this trend intensified over the last quarter. The uncertainty to where the market was heading in early 2008 is now becoming clear. So, market conditions are likely to be weak for the remainder of 2008 at possibly into 2009 . The market has entered a weakening stage. the extent to which the market falls is difficult to assess at this stage but if the economy falters a major correction could occur.
ECONOMY
What is driving the market now is the uncertainty about the Australian economy. Several significant head winds are occurring; such as the interest rate rises, higher fuel costs, higher costs overall, fears of higher inflation & particularly wage costs and the $dollar. Business and Consumer confidence is dropping rapidly. There is a major indicator for slower growth. the lower confidence feeds into the decision making or purchasers.
FINANCE
Obtaining finance is also effecting the small businesses for sale market. Deals that were being done this time last year are now being rejected. Thus the purchasing power of buyers is falling. Banks are revising their lending criteria and have become more selective
PRICES
- The early evidence of price falls occurring in the last few months have become more pronounced. price reductions of some 5% are now common. Realistic 'asking prices' by the vendors, 'responsible' assessment and representation by the Business Broker will be required and both will need to concentrate on this aspect if the business is to be sold.
ACIVITY & SELLING TIMES
- Most states other than SA and perhaps NSW are still "travelling reasonably well" and/but the next six months will still be difficult; especially & particularly for businesses less than (<) $200,000. Selling times have increased, say 2-6 months if priced correctly.
@ October'2008...
The market for the sale of businesses continues to weaken both in terms of demand from purchasers and prices. The market is now a buyer's market-across all sectors of the small business market. this particularly the case for those businesses less than $250,000. With the larger businesses, demand is still reasonable and correctly priced businesses are still selling
ECONOMY
The market is now firmly been driven by factors affecting the economy. Media reporting has definitely cast a web of "doom and gloom" . The outcome for the next 6-12 months is for continuing slowdown coupled by entering into a recessionary period.
FINANCE
Obtaining finance for small business purchases is becoming more difficult.
PRICES
The main factors influencing prices at the moment are purchasers' confidence and obtaining finance
ACTIVITY & SELLING TIMES
Poor to weak responses are being experienced - moreso in print media scenario. There doesn't appear any "light in the tunnel"...until at least mid-June 2009... we might as well all go fishing!
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